نيويورك تايمز: ثلاث تمردات تهدد إستقرار اليمن

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Yemen’s Instability Grows as One of 3 Insurgencies Flares Up

By ROBERT F. WORTH
Published: August 10, 2009

BEIRUT, Lebanon — An intermittent rebellion in northwestern Yemen has flared up again in the past 10 days, leaving dozens dead and wounded and adding a new element of instability to a country that is already facing a violent separatist movement in the south and an increasingly bold insurgency by Al Qaeda.

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The New York Times
The military has clashed with rebels in Saada Province.
After a series of armed clashes with the military, Shiite rebels led by Abdul-Malik al-Houthi appeared to be in control of several areas of Saada Province, the remote, mountainous area in the north where an insurgency has raged on and off since 2004, witnesses and local officials said. Efforts toward a cease-fire were under way on Sunday and Monday, with no clear result.

Yemen, a poor, arid country in the southern corner of the Arabian peninsula, has gained new attention in recent months from American military officials, who are concerned about Al Qaeda’s efforts to set up a regional base there. Late last month, Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top United States commander in the Middle East, visited Yemen and pledged to support its counterterrorism efforts.

Al Qaeda’s growing presence in Yemen — where it took credit for a deadly attack on the American Embassy last year — is especially troubling because the country’s fractious tribes and rugged geography make it notoriously difficult to control.

In recent months, President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has expertly played Yemen’s various tribes and factions against one another for decades, has faced more serious threats to his authority.

In the south, a simmering protest movement has burst into open rebellion, with armed rebels raising the flag of the formerly independent South Yemen. In late July, at least 20 people were killed after demonstrators in southern Abyan Province threatened to break open a local prison where detainees were being held. A series of ambushes by rebel forces has left a number of police officers dead; details are difficult to ascertain because the government has clamped down on news coverage.

As important as the violence has been the defection of some leading political figures. In April, Tareq al-Fadhli, an important ally of Mr. Saleh, joined the southern secessionist movement. Mr. Fadhli is an influential tribal figure who fought with Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan and helped organize former jihadists to fight against a southern secession movement on Mr. Saleh’s behalf in 1994.

North and south Yemen were unified in 1990 after years of turmoil, but many southerners, including former military officers, say they are treated as second-class citizens. Rising unemployment has fueled the discontent.

Last week, in an interview on Al Jazeera, the Arabic news network, a member of one of Yemen’s most powerful families surprised the country’s political establishment by calling for Mr. Saleh to step down. The man, Hamid al-Ahmar, whose father was one of Mr. Saleh’s most important allies, brazenly said he could speak out against the president — something scarcely anyone dares to do — because his tribal confederation would protect him.

Yemen has long been a haven for jihadists, and the turmoil of recent years — along with a severe crackdown on terrorism in neighboring Saudi Arabia — has led some Qaeda figures to resettle there. Several former Guantánamo detainees fled this year to Yemen from Saudi Arabia and pledged to mount attacks on Saudi Arabia and other countries from their Yemeni redoubt. The Yemeni branch of Al Qaeda has an active propaganda arm and appears to have built relationships with tribes in the Marib region that have helped protect it, analysts say.

Despite the Yemeni government’s periodic claims that all three insurgencies — in the south, the north and by Al Qaeda — are united against it, there is no evidence that they are working together. Still, the convergence is troubling.

“All of these problems are coalescing and exacerbating each other in ways that are not completely knowable at this time,” said Gregory D. Johnsen, a Yemen expert who is currently in the country. “The three crises have combined, along with the economy, to make things look bleaker here than they have in a long time.”

Although Yemen has had some notable successes in fighting jihadists and has built a crack counterterrorism strike force, the government has been hampered by a lack of money and by widespread corruption. The country’s small oil supplies are rapidly disappearing, a water crisis is growing worse and the population of 22 million is swelling.

Yemen has also long suffered from violent tribal feuds, banditry and kidnapping, much of it beyond the control of the central government. In June, nine foreigners were kidnapped while on a picnic in Saada Province, and three soon turned up dead. Six remain unaccounted for: three toddlers and their parents, who are German, and a British engineer.

In that context, the renewed violence in the north — where a truce last summer seemed to have ended the war — bodes ill for Yemen’s stability. The conflict has already left thousands dead in the past five years and produced tens of thousands of refugees. It also has troubling sectarian overtones: the rebels are Zaydis, an offshoot of Shiite Islam, and the government has sometimes used hard-line Sunni tribesmen as proxy warriors.

The media office for Mr. Houthi, the Shiite rebel ******, issued a statement on Friday saying government helicopters were dropping leaflets calling on the people to take up arms against his supporters. The statement called on the government to stop its attacks and to release Houthi supporters being held in prison.

The rebels and the Yemeni military appear to be building up their forces in the area, and some military officials have predicted that if another round of conflict breaks out in Saada, it will be bloodier than any of those in the past.
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الترجمة بإختصار:

3 تمردات تهدد إستقرار اليمن
تجددت الإشتباكات مع المتمردين في الشمال الغربي مخلفة العشرات من القتلى و الجرحى لتضيف عاملا لعدم الإستقرار في اليمن الذي يعاني من التحرك المطالب بالإنفصال في الجنوب و إزدياد التمرد الدموي للقاعدة.
بعد عرض تاريخي موجز للصراع مع الحوثي و التعرض لفقر اليمن و المساعدات الأمريكية للنظام لمواجهة القاعدة التي تنشط في اليمن يتحدث المقال عن تحدي جدي يواجه الرئيس على عبدالله صالح الذي تعود على زرع الفتن بين القبائل بما يضمن بقائه في السلطة. ففي الجنوب تحولت حركات الإحتجاجات إلى تمرد مفتوح حيث يرفع علم دولة الجنوب السابقة جهارا. و في يوليو الماضي قتل حوالي عشرون متظاهرا في زنجبار عاصمة محافظة أبين بعد فعالية تحرك بعدها المتظاهرون إلى السجن المحلي من أجل إطلاق سراح المعتقلين كما قتل رجال من الشرطة أيضا في هذا الحدث. و يصعب الحصول على تفاصيل حول الحادثة بسبب الحظر الذي تفرضه السلطة على تغطية الأحداث.
كما إلتحق بالحركة الجنوبية شخصيات مهمة منها طارق الفضلى الذي كان يعتبر حليفا للنظام و قاتل ضد الجنوب في حرب 1994. و هو شخصية قبلية ذوا تأثير كبير و قد شارك في حرب أفغانستان ضد السوفييت إلى جانب أسامة بن لادن.
و توحد شمال اليمن و جنوبه في عام 1991 إلا أن الكثير من الجنوبيين من ضمنهم عسكريين يقولون أنهم يعاملون كأناس من الدرجة الثانية و يعانون الإقصاء.
في لقاء مع الجزيرة مؤخرا طالب عضو إحدى الأسر القبلية المؤثرة علانية من الرئيس على صالح التنحي عن الحكم. حميد الأحمر الذي كان أبوه من حلفاء الرئيس قال أنه يمكنه أن يتحدث بمثل هذا الكلام لأنه محمي بقبيلته.
و اليمن مثلت ملجأ للكثير من الجهاديين الذين مثلوا تهديدا للجارة العربية السعودية. حيث يبدوا أن القاعدة لها شعبية بين أوساط القبائل و خاصة في مأرب.
و بالرغم من إدعاء اليمن أن التمردات الثلاثة (في الجنوب و في الشمال و كذا القاعد) توحدوا ضده إلا أنه لا يوجد ما يشير إلا أي تنسيق بين هذه القوى. و هذه التمردات تؤثر على بعضها و يزيد الوضع الإقتصادي من تفاقم و تعقيد هذه الأزمات كلها.
و بالرغم من بعض النجاحات في الحرب ضد الإرهاب يقول اليمن أنه يحتاج إلى مزيد من المساعدات المالية حتى يتمكن من مواصلة ذلك إلا أن الفساد يلتهم هذه المساعدات!!
كما يعاني اليمن من صراعات قبلية و عمليات خطف الأجانب.
و الحرب في صعدة التي كان من تداعياتها عملية الخطف الأخيرة أدت إلى قتل الآلاف و تشريد عشرات الآلاف من مساكنهم. في الوقت الذي يعزز فيه الحوثيون قواتهم و مواقعهم و يتوقع الكثيرون أن إندلاع حرب جديدة في صعدة سيكون أكثر دموية من المرات السابقة!